“The Pessimist Sees Difficulty In Every Opportunity. The Optimist Sees Opportunity In Every Difficulty.”

While SUBT has claimed the largest slice of 21 seats, the Congress has had to satisfy itself with  17 seats. Veteran leader Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party SNCP has been relegated to the smallest partner’s role. Pawar has chosen to play a low-profile act, keeping all his options open, his followers believe. On the other hand, in spite of dissenting murmurs from within, the Congress will have be content by fielding just two candidates from Mumbai, its stronghold once upon a time. The Congress high command’s decision to sacrifice Sangli and Bhiwandi has already generated considerable bad blood. These seats will be contested by SUBT) and SNCP, respectively.

The Maharashtra Congress leadership is stated to be responsible for this lamentable show. Its carte blanch to the SUBT to lead in the Lok Sabha campaign has clearly sent out signals that henceforth, it will accept to play a secondary role in the state. By and large, it is now openly said that the Congress party is incapable to mount a solid challenge to the saffron alliance, which is riding on a confidence wave. The decline in the Congress strength was evident in 2019, when the Congress had contested 25 seats and had managed to win just one. Even the winning candidate was imported from the then undivided Shiv Sena.

The SUBT has been hit by one desertion after another ever since there was a change in power equation in Maharashtra. Nonetheless, Uddhav Thackeray has managed to present a defiant image. His aggressive posture has been supported by the Congress and SNCP, as shown by the seat-sharing formula.

On the other hand, Maharashtra chief minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction and deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar’s NCP group are still in a sort of disarray about finalising their candidates in several constituencies, including in Mumbai. The three- party MahaYuti alliance has several strongholds in Mumbai, Konkan, Thane and in western Maharashtra. A number of influential Sena activists have decided to follow Shinde while NCP’s many fiefs have joined the team of Ajit Pawar. The BJP is the only party in the state which has seen few dissensions. Together, the MahaYuti has been claiming to win at least 45 seats. This ambitious claim has bene debunked by the MVA but it, too, lacks a cohesive approach to take on the saffron challengers.

According to some observers, SUBT has retained its hold in Mumbai and Thane even after Eknath Shinde’s decision to break away from the parent organisation. Uddhav has continued his grip where the rank and file of the Sean, the ‘shakhas,’ operate. There is no doubt that through this strong network, Uddhav will be able to mobilise the Sena’s traditional vote bank. He is in an upbeat mood already as his leadership has been endorsed by the largest share of seats he has managed to wrest. It is a strong message for Sena workers and supporters to show that the party is determined to fight the juggernaut launched by Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah. Whatever the outcome of the LS election, the preparation for the assembly and civic elections will come in handy.

Raj Thackeray’s expected entry into the saffron camp will be a major factor in a number of constituencies since Shiv Sainiks in such areas are aggrieved by Uddhav’s decision to go with the Congress and the SNCP. So far, they had little choice but Raj has opened a window for them by evoking Hindutva in his Shivaji Park speech. Smartly, he avoided any reference to the ‘outsider’ issue, in a bid to mollify the large North Indian vote bank in urban areas. His acceptance of Modi’s leadership without making any demands will certainly soften the atmosphere for MNS though some protests are already heard.

For the Congress party, the election will be an acid test. It is under attack for giving in to the SUBT without any protest. Maharashtra Congress president Nana Patole is the main target of his adversaries within the party. While he defended the  decision on seat-sharing as a strategy to defeating the BJP, he vehemently maintained that this was not a surrender, but just an adjustment. This argument has not gone down well in the party. As much as Sangli, the Mumbai unit, too, has expressed its unhappiness.  It is expected by him that once all factors are in place, such thorny issues will disappear and every worker will strive to make the Congress party successful.

When Pawar, Thackeray and Patole were announcing the seat formula after weeks of intense  negotiations, some analysts tried to read their body language. Pawar did not show any emotion and was difficult to read, as always. But Uddhav Thackeray, while defending the formula, appear smug to them. His confident posture contrasted with Patole’s moniker strewn with frowns. All three, however, were unanimous in declaring that its objective was to defeat the BJP. The SUBT’s planning is obvious, all said and done. It is looking at regaining the lost ground across Maharashtra in view of the future development. Similarly, the Congress will spare no effort to re-establish itself as the main opposition party in the state. The Maharashtra assembly polls is the real objective for it although it will continue to claim that it is a national party.

Under the seat sharing formula, the SUBT will contest Jalgaon, Parbhani, Nashik, Palghar, Kalyan, Thane, Raigad, Maval, Dharashiv (Osmanabad), Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg, Buldhana, Hathkanangkale, Sambhaji Nagar (Aurangabad), Shirdi, Sangli, Hingoli, Yavatmal-Washim, Mumbai South, Mumbai South Central, Mumbai North West and Mumbai North East seats. No major change is likely to take place in its share.

The Congress will have candidates in Nandurbar, Dhule, Akola, Amravati, Nagpur, Bhandara-Gondia, Gadchiroli-Chimur, Chandrapur, Nanded, Jalna, Mumbai North Central, Mumbai North, Pune, Latur, Solapur, Kolhapur and Ramtek seats. The SNCP will fight in  Baramati, Shirur, Satara, Bhiwandi, Dindori, Madha, Raver, Wardha, Ahmednagar South and Beed constituencies.