The opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) is preparing to achieve an unrealistic looking goal of winning 200 seats in the coming Maharashtra assembly polls. MVA’s confidence has been boosted by the success of each of its three partners in the Lok Sabha elections. Hence, MVA is riding the crest of confidence, raising the expectations of its rank and file in the process.
Going by the statistics for the Maharashtra Lok Sabha picture, MVA has fixed the target of 200 seats out of a total 288 in the assembly. The Congress party has had the best strike rate among the three partners in Maharashtra. Even the seats appearing unlikely to go into its fold have been bagged by the party or by MVA. The Mumbai North-east LS seat is the best example of this lottery. None, including the MVA leaders, were confident of its candidate Bhooshan Patil’s victory in the constituency, considered to be a BJP stronghold. Due to such a windfall across the state, MVA is looking with renewed confidence for fighting the assembly elections. However, there is a catch.
Now that the assembly polls are approaching, the Congress party is preparing strategy to demand more seats with its legitimate claim that it had won 13 seats of the 17 it contested. Hence, it feels, its strike rate is the best in Maharashtra and hence it is entitled to gain the largest share of the seats. Congress leaders wish that the party is in a position to contest 150 seats.
It is their gut feeling that the electorate of Maharashtra has reposed its traditional faith in the Congress. The perception that the support by Muslims and Dalits has enabled the party to bounce back in the state after a decade is the main factor that has enhanced the confidence. Expectedly, it will demand more seats to satisfy as many of its members as possible.
Anticipating such a move by the Congress, the Shiv Sena (UBT) has started weaving its own strategy. Although the Congress has not disclosed the party’s numerical ambition, Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray has alerted the Congress high command not to make “unreasonable” demands and not rock the boat. He decided to airdash to Delhi after told that the state Congress had been given green light to negotiate firmly. They, accordingly, have been finalising plans to claim traditional Congress pockets as well as those assembly segments in which the LS Congress candidates fared well.
As far as the ruling Maha Yuti is concerned, the BJP’s efforts to retain its OBC community vote base will be intensified in the coming months. On the other hand, Congress strategists feel that the current tense relationship between the Maratha and OBC vote banks will prove to be at the cost of the BJP. The BJP’s supporters are spread across OBC sections like the Mali, Dhangar, and Vanjari sub-castes. To outweigh this factor, the MVA leadership is busy wooing Maratha, Muslim and Dalit sections.
A deciding factor in the coming election will be the equation that emerges from the campaign unleashed by Maratha leader Manoj Jarange, who is spearheading the Maratha agitation for reservations for the caste. To counter this move, the OBC community has fielded its influential leader Laxman Hake, who is opposing the Maratha demand tooth and nail. Watching the battle, Congress leaders feel that the BJP will have to pay the price ultimately. The Maha Yuti is considering its planning to retaliate effectively.
At present, the state is in the grips of flooding in many areas, water shortages in some parts, facing urgency to complete some mega projects before the election and ensure that the various benefit schemes it has launched do truly reach the people. If this does not happen, the MVA will find a ready tool to beat the ruling alliance. The planning will hinge on the rural-urban divide. This will cover the farmers’ issues, mainly remunerative prices for agro produce. In urban areas, burning issues such as price increase, unemployment and law and order situations in important cities will dominate the strategy.
The coming election will prove to be a game changer for the BJP as it will have to reaffirm its dominance against the LS election backdrop. It will invite Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other party bigwigs to campaign for the party. On the other hand, the Congress propaganda will mainly depend upon Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi. The Congress will concentrate on the areas with substantial Dalit and Muslim voters. The existing pockets in which the party’s score was encouraging will receive more attention.
The tremendous response to chief minister Eknath Shinde’s “Laadki Bahin” direct benefit scheme has alarmed the MVA planners. In fact, they were preparing a counter campaign in Maharashtra to outsmart the Maha Yuti. However, the CM has emerged a better strategist as far as populist measures are concerned.
In the coming election, the Aam Aadmi Party will be an additional angle. AAP had announced during the 2019 assembly election that it will have candidates on most of the seats. However, it could field only a handful. Despite this fiasco, it has announced that it will have candidates for all 36 seats in Mumbai. If this happens in Mumbai and some other parts of Maharashtra, the opposition vote share will be dented to that extent. Still, AAP’s announcements are not taken too seriously, at least at present.
For better coordination and results, the state is being divided into six regions: Vidarbha, Mumbai, North Maharashtra (Khandesh), Western Maharashtra, Marathwada, and Konkan. The Congress-led alliance holds a strong position or is leading in Vidarbha, Marathwada, and Western Maharashtra, while the BJP dominates in Mumbai, Konkan, and North Maharashtra.
Electorally, Maharashtra is considered to be consisting of six regions: Vidarbha, Mumbai, North Maharashtra, Western Maharashtra, Marathwada, and Konkan. After a decade, the Congress has performed well in Vidarbha, Marathwada and Western Maharashtra. The BJP has retained its hold in Mumbai, Konkan and North Maharashtra though it has lost many of its strongholds. To recreated its space among the OBC voters, the BJP has made several strategic decisions. Amidst criticism, it has got Pankaja Munde elected as MLC. Similarly, OBC leader Vinod Tawade has been appointed a general secretary of the party.
The NCP factions under Sharad Pawar and his nephew Ajit Pawar will also demand a fair share of the seats. Balancing the individual factional demands will determine the fate of the six parties in the fray in Maharashtra for the October election.
A Column By
Dilip Chaware – Senior Editor
A media professional for 43 years, with extensive experience of writing on
a variety of subjects; he is also a documentary producer and book author.
