The 2024 Lok Sabha election is going to be a milestone in Maharashtra due to several unprecedented factors. A keen tussle between the ruling Maha Yuti and the opposition-led INDIA combine to win most of the 48 LS seats in the state. Sensing this situation, various opinion polls and surveys have been conducted across the state. They have come out with bewildering predictions. The track record of such assessments shows that not much faith can be reposed in them. Nonetheless, they come handy for the final result analysis and hence do serve a purpose.
The ongoing election will be remembered as far as Maharashtra is concerned for some time due to the momentous political developments after the 2019 LS and assembly elections. The most important was Uddhav Thackeray’s decision to severe the Shiv Sena’s alliance with the BJP after almost 25 years of partnership. This happened with a great aftermath and soon thereafter, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) founded by Sharad Pawar, too, splintered into two factions, the other led by his nephew Ajit Pawar. The Sena’s breakaway party is led by chief minister Eknath Shinde. Thus, except for the BJP and the Congress, factionalism has hit both major parties, the Sena and the NCP. The results to be announced on 4 June will definitely reflect the impact of this split.
Amid the changing poll equations, surveys and polls were conducted to assess the mood of the state electorate, ahead of the elections. Needless to say, Maharashtra holds importance for the LS calculations, it being having the second-highest number of seats after 80 in Uttar Pradesh. In 2019, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance had won most of the seats in Maharashtra. The BJP’s share was 23 seats while the undivided Sena under Uddhav did get 18 seats.
Leading Marathi news channel, ABP, in association with C-Voters had conducted an opinion poll much before the election dates were announced. It had predicted a mixed mandate for the BJP in the state. As per the survey, the BJP-Sena(Shinde)-NCP(Ajit) alliance is expected to get 30 seats. The Congress-Sena (Uddhav)—NCP(Sharad Pawar) combine is likely to get 18 seats. The BJP will be the largest party with 22 seats while Shinde and Ajit factions are likely to get the remaining eight seats.
The Congress, which had ruled the state for decades, is projected to get three seats while the two other partners, NCP and Sena, are expected to win 15 seats together.
A survey which had been carried out earlier had shown that 46 percent of the people in Maharashtra were highly satisfied with the performance Prime Minister Narendra Modi though 29 percent were unsatisfied with him. Similarly, 60 percent of the electors surveyed wished to see Modi obtaining a third term. Significantly, just 27 percent wanted Rahul Gandhi for PM.
When the respondents were asked to assess CM Shinde’s performance, barely 22 percent of them said they were satisfied with the work of the state government under him. On the other hand, 34 percent of the people were less satisfied. In the same vein, 37 percent of the respondents were unsatisfied with the BJP-Shiv Sena—NCP alliance government in the state.
The survey report also predicted that the NDA is likely to garner 44 percent of the votes in Maharashtra against the INDIA combine’s 40 percent, indicating a close contest.
Now compare this survey’s findings with another, carried out by India TV—CNX opinion poll. The BJP-led Mahayuti alliance in Maharashtra may win 39 seats in the LS election, according to this opinion poll, leaving nine seats for the INDIA bloc.
According to the survey, BJP alone is likely to win 29 seats while the allies, Sena (Shinde) and NCP (Ajit) may bag seven and three seats respectively. The Congress is likely to win a single seat, like it did in 2019. The Sena (UBT) and NCP (Sharad) would be able to win six and two seats respectively, it says. Thus, the NDA tally will be 39 against eight for the INDIA, leaving one seat out.
The News 18’s Mega Opinion Poll has come to the conclusion that the NDA could win 41 seats, repeating its performance in the previous LS election, leaving the remaining seven seats in Maharashtra for the opposing INDIA bloc. According to the survey, the NDA’s vote share will be 48 per cent while the INDIA kitty will be 34 per cent of the total votes.
The survey was carried out between 1 February and 1 March this year, covering 21 major India states, accounting for 95 percent of all LS seats. It’s claimed to be one of the largest surveys in the country. The presentation says that it provides valuable insights into the political landscape of India, offering a detailed analysis of voter sentiment and preferences ahead of the elections.
In a sharp contrast, in spite of the factionalism that has hit the Sena and the NCP, the NDA will not perform any spectacularly, in fact witnessing a massive drop in its 2019 LS tally, it has suggested. This time, according to India Today’s Mood of the Nation (MOTN) survey, the INDIA bloc is likely to win 26 seats. The Congress, with Uddhav’s Sena and Sharad Pawar’s NCP, is predicted to win 12 seats. The Sena (UBT) and the NCP are likely to win 14 seats together.
The poll has also predicted that the INDIA bloc will get 45 percent of the popular vote, restricting the NDA to get just 40 percent. In the 2019 election, the Congress had won only one seat though it vote share was an impressive 16 per cent. This time, it might surprise all pundits if the survey’s forecast that it will take its tally to 12 despite several prominent deserting it on the eve of the election.
Pollint for the Lok Sabha election will be held till 20 May and the results will be declared on 4 June. Till then, guessing games will be rampant. Every voter should exercise her or his right to tender vote, all parties have urged. The appeal needs to be taken seriously in view of the lethargic response of voters in the first phase.
A Column By
Dilip Chaware – Senior Editor
A media professional for 43 years, with extensive experience of writing on
a variety of subjects; he is also a documentary producer and book author.
