“The Pessimist Sees Difficulty In Every Opportunity. The Optimist Sees Opportunity In Every Difficulty.”

But various tumultuous developments in 2019 saw Uddhav Thackeray installed as the chief minister as the Shiv Sena under him parted ways with the Bharatiya Janata Party, ending their alliance that was formed in 1989 by Balasaheb Thackeray and Pramod Mahajan. It teamed up with the Nationalist Congress Party and the Congress to rule the state. The combination was unbelievable for many ground-level workers since they had been working against each other for decades. Even that shock was considered mild when the Shiv Sena was split following rebellion by Eknath Shinde and by Ajit Pawar, who splintered the NCP developed by his uncle, Sharad Pawar.

Although the seat-sharing’s challenge is tackled, the coming LS polls will test leaders from both sides, the ruling alliance and the opposition-led front.  Maharashtra’s political scenario at present makes it a daunting challenge for every party. Though infused with confidence due to the PM’s promise to comb Maharashtra, the NDA is not taking the coming battle lightly while the opposition, too, is making every effort to improve its score in the state. In 2019, it could win just half a dozen seats. Therefore, the state’s voting pattern is becoming a jigsaw puzzle for all.

The BJP–Shiv Sena alliance bagged 41 of Maharashtra’s 48 seats in 2019 elections. At that time, the BJP won 23 seats and the Sena 18. The seven seats which went for the opposition proved little consolation. It clearly pointed at a one-sided assembly election, which was to be held a few months later.

The Congress party fared very badly as its winning tally declined from two seats in 2014 to a lone Chandrapur constituency in 2019. The NCP, surprisingly, emerged as a stronger partner as it could regain its four seats of 2014. The only seat the AIMIM and the VBA combine could win was Aurangabad in Marathwada. The only seat won by an independent candidate was Amaravati, which had returned Navneet Rana, who is now in the BJP camp.

In 2019 election, 21 constituencies in the state showed a vote share below 50 percent. Whereas the BJP and Shiv Sena each had eight such constituencies, the Congress–NCP had three each. Two seats in this category were won by others. When this statistics is considered against the backdrop of the 2014 elections, it can be seen that 16 constituencies had shown vote shares under 50 per cent. The saffron alliance’s 11 constituencies were in this slot while the Congress–NCP had five. This clearly indicated a future tussle in 2019. The number of constituencies where races were close showed an increasing trend. But this turned out to be only a partial truth in 2019 as the BJP–Sena alliance improved its tally in almost all districts across Maharashtra. Mumbai, Thane, Pune and Jalgaon were under the saffron spell. Mumbai North, a traditional BJP stronghold, surprised political observers as the party’s vote share clocked 71 percent. The alliance’s vote share surpassed the average in several constituencies in different parts of the state. This was the basis of the seat-sharing talks, which are proving equally painful for all the major contestants this time. On the other hand, the BJP—Sena alliance suffered a below average performance in 24 constituencies like Nanded, Sangli or Parbhani. The real jolt was in the traditional Congress stronghold, Sangli, where it could claim just 42.8 per cent of the votes but was saved by a multi-corner contest.

A quick analysis shows that the Congress-NCP combine commanded conclusive victory in Baramati and Satara constituencies, exceeding 50 percent vote share in both places in 2019 polls. Unlike in the past, the Congress could manage to win only Chandrapur where its candidate was a former Shiv Sena worker. This time, his wife, Pratibha has been fielded to take on culture minister Sudhir Mungantiwar, a formidable opponent. The NCP is still in the process of finalising its candidates to retain its hold in western Maharashtra.

While all was going well for the saffron allies, the dramatic developments soon after the 2019 Vidhan Sabha elections soured the BJP’s camaraderie with the Sena, which continued to express its displeasure in sharing power in the state and the Union government. Just before the 2014 assembly elections, the Sena had decided to go alone and had only later joined the government. The Congress-NCP combine, too, was buffeted by suspicion, mutual mistrust and hatred at certain personal levels. This atmosphere of intrigue resulted in a hung assembly in 2014 as the BJP was falling short of a working majority by a mere 20 seats. NCP chief Sharad Pawar created a storm by unilaterally declaring support for the BJP. Shaken by this, the Sena ultimately yielded and returned in the government. But it typically persisted with its criticism of its own regime for the entire 2014-2019 duration.

Considering the fact that Maharashtra’s political equation since 1989 had remained bipolar, the situation in 2024 is vastly different. Factions of the Shiv Sena and the NCP have come together under the BJP banner. Similarly, the combined opposition is making a desperate bid to win as many LS seats as possible by burying their differences. It is a challenging task for both.