Few will recall how Union home minister Amit Shah years ago had taken to task those Bharatiya Janata Party elements who had been insisting that the BJP should go ahead on its own in the assembly elections in Maharashtra by breaking its alliance with the then unified Shiv Sena.
He had said, “Fight the election with the sole objective of dislodging the 15-year-old Congress-Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) government in the state.” The BJP is now viewing the fractured Sena as its principal rival in Maharashtra. In a manner of speaking, the wheel has turned a full circle. Shah had discussed at length the political, social and caste factors in the state, especially with reference to the state government’s decision to provide reservation to the Maratha caste and to Muslims in jobs and education. This was a decade ago. The reservation issue, though Muslims have been omitted from its ambit, has come back to the centre stage once again. In these ten years, the state politics has seen many twists and turns.
In the almost exact recreation of the scene, Shah has prevailed to finalise the ruling Maha Yuti alliance’s seat-sharing formula for the coming assembly elections during his Maharashtra visit. The main agenda of his tour was to settle the seat-sharing issues with the object of boosting the rank and file’s confidence.
Shah also directed the organisation to refresh contact with the people and regain their support. Explaining the strategy, he said if a village sarpanch belonged to the opposition-led Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), they should persuade a candidate who may have contested against the sarpanch but had lost it. Bring in workers from any party but don’t forget to increase at least ten per cent of the votes in every booth. While denting the MVA, the BJP functionaries must end all differences. They should accept the responsibility unitedly, he has ordered.
Shah later held a meeting with chief minister Eknath Shinde and DCMs Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar. Although all of them claimed that the meeting was positive and a decision will be taken soon, it is obvious that each alliance partner will make efforts to obtain the largest number of the 288 seats.
Already some such meetings are taking place and expected to go on in the next few days. It is generally expected that the final-formula will be announced to coincide with the advent of the Navratri festival on 3 October. Still, there is possibility that the BJP could announce its resolve to fight 155 seats. The chief minister’s Sena might get around 90 and the Nationalist Congress Party under Ajit Pawar could get less than 50 seats. The three parties are also considering of exchanging some of the seats they won in the last assembly election in 2019 to brighten the chances of a win. Shah has finalised the number of seats to be contested by three ruling parties but the announcement will be made at a proper time, once again underscoring the party leadership’s grip on the organisation.
During his tour of the state, Shah held meetings with Maha Yuti leaders in Vidarbha, Marathwada, western and northern Maharashtra. Indications are available that he wanted a firsthand assessment from the ground level workforce. The BJP’s both partners have been asked to concentrate on the strike rate rather than the number of seats each contests. Explaining the reason, it is said that the BJP contested 164 seats in 2019 and may have now to sacrifice a few of the seats. Shah suggested that the Sena (Shinde) and the NCP(Ajit) should reciprocate by compromise on some seats. His suggestion that for a better strike rate, the ruling alliance partners should exchange certain seats and change some candidates. The suggestion has been welcomed by all concerned.
Shah has asked the Maha Yuti to ensure that the impact of the Maratha reservation issue does not harm their prospects in the assembly polls. They are now devising plans to improve their access to the Maratha community in a bid to bring them back towards the BJP and the Maha Yuti.
According to all signals, Fadnavis will continue to be the central figure in the BJP’s Maharashtra strategy. Although his adversaries in the MVA as well as in the BJP are raising issues to question his contribution and leadership, Shah did not indicate in any manner of any such thinking. Fadnavis is fully involved in candidate selection and planning the electoral strategy. Although there is no challenge to him, Fadnavis himself is said to be evaluating his role afresh. He enjoys support of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and Prime Minister Narendra Modi but knows that gaining a strong foothold at the ground level is critical.
One of the internal surveys, though its authenticity is not established, claims that chances are improving for the Maha Yuti alliance. Carried out in September, over 39 percent of respondents can support the Maha Yuti against more than 38 percent to the MVA coalition. This shows a marked change over the findings in August, when 37 percent had backed Maha Yuti against 43 percent for MVA.
Determined to trounce the Maha Yuti once more after the LS win, the MVA is in an upbeat mood. Veteran leader Sharad Pawar has emerged as the star campaigner although the Congress had won the largest number of parliament seats. Shiv Sena’s efforts to project Uddhav Thackeray as the MVA leader came to a nought after his demand to announce the name of the next chief minister candidate in advance was ignored by Pawar and state Congress president Nana Patole. However, despite such issues, MVA is confident of repeating its victorious performance.
The next week will be crucial for both sides as they will be under increasing pressure to declare their candidates. Once their names are announced, the parties will have to busy themselves to douse the fires lit by the rebels and defuse the atmosphere in general. As the political workers in Maharashtra have now learned, any permutations and combinations can take place, depending upon the situation. They know that party and ideology loyalty are secondary to gaining power.
A Column By
Dilip Chaware – Senior Editor
A media professional for 43 years, with extensive experience of writing on
a variety of subjects; he is also a documentary producer and book author.
