Since 1985, no single-party government has ruled Maharashtra. The state has witnessed frequent political defections, two of them resulting in change of government. The incumbent three-party alliance, called Mahayuti (Mega Alliance), was expected to sweep the Lok Sabha 2024 election. Most alliance leaders had been proclaiming a complete rout of the opposition. Some had gone to the extent of winning all the 48 seats in the state while some were more liberal, limiting their score at 45. They all have now tested the public mandate and will have to tailor their strategies to face the upcoming legislative assembly elections, due in October this year.
The general consensus about the election results is that the people of the state have voted against the politics of turncoats, who change their loyalties at the drop of a hat. The first such incident happened in 2019 when the unified Shiv Sena teamed up with the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). Prior to this, a 72-hour long government was in office, led by Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar. Replacing that, Uddhav Thackerya took over as chief minister. His term was eclipsed by Covid-19 pandemic. The breakaway Sena faction shook hands with the BJP and the Shinde-Fadnavis rule started. It was supplemented by Ajit Pawar the next year. The 2024 general election was held against this backdrop. In a manner of speaking, this was the public test to gauge society’s response to the political manoeuvrings which began in 2019.
In the process, Uddhav and NCP founder Sharad Pawar saw their organisations splintering. Still, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), which was formed to share power in 2019, continued. The MVA has dominated the recent LS election, humbling the BJP, the Sena (Shinde) and the NCP (Ajit). The reasons for this saffron rout are not far to see.
The INDIA bloc has bagged 30 out of 48 seats, turning the Mahayuti’s claim on its head. The Congress with 13 wins is the largest gainer. It is followed by Uddhav’s Sena at nine and NCP (Sharad) at eight. On the other hand, the ruling alliance of the Sena (7), Ajit’s NCP(1) and the BJP (9) has slumped to 17 seats. In the 2019 election, the BJP alone had won 23 seats and the Sena 18. The Congress then had won a single seat while the NCP had won five. Navnit Rana was the independent winner from Amaravati.
The 2024 election was thought to have the Ram Mandir as the main plank, laced with a liberal dose of Hindutva. Like in the North, the voters in Maharashtra, too, did not accept this line of campaigning. The constant hammering that the rulers in Delhi are against Marathi Manoos seems to have worked. Uddhav, Sharad Pawar and even some Congress leaders kept on repeating the refrain that the BJP government at the Centre had been misusing the agencies and the Enforcement Directorate and the CBI to undermine the opposition in the state. break two Marathi regional parties.
The latent wave of resentment against the government was noticed but it was too late by that time. The emotional campaign for demanding Maratha reservations was mishandled by the Mahayuti. The effect was felt severely through the EVMs, specially in Marathwada and Vidarbha regions. Though Marathwada had been a BJP stronghold, it failed to retain Latur, Nanded, Jalna, and Beed constituencies. The prominent losers were Union minister Raosaheb Danve (Jalna), Pankaja Munde (Beed) and Sudhakar Shrungare (Latur). In Nanded, the entry of former CM Ashok Chavan into the BJP did not help. In fact, the seat was lost.
The surprising gains were registered by the Congress party, which had kept on losing its mass support over the years. The party fared well in Vidarbha. The Mahayuti’s ambivalence over the Maratha reservation issue enraged the strong Kunbi community to benefit the Congress, which could win five seats in the region. Uddhav and Sharad Pawar won one seat each.
The overall impression that Maharashtra was losing to Gujarat in terms of investment and industry hurt the Mahayuti most. The fact that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and home minister Amit Shah belong to Gujarat was used cleverly to entrench the perception that the Centre was partial to the neighbouring state and that the sons of the soil were being sidelined.
A primary analysis of the LS results shows that the MVA is leading in 154 assembly segments in the state against the Mahayuti’s 123. In other words, the magic figure of 144 in the lower house can be easily achieved by the Mahayuti. As the assembly election is due in October, the MVA leaders have already forecasting that they will come in power later this year. In fact, many local leaders have begun behaving as if they have been chosen by people already.
History has shown that the dynamics of each election is different. There is no guaranteed winning formula. The NDA, provided it continues in its present form, will not be able to cash in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity. Secondly, it will have to handle the Maratha reservation demand adroitly. The MVA will be watching its each move and one misstep will cost it dearly.
The BJP’s Hindutva plank, too, will have to be restructured. Although many claim that it has failed, the effect of Ram Nam on a Hindu mind is everlasting. The main grouse of the people in Maharashtra was that the Mahayuti did not keep its promises. That will have to be studied afresh.
A loose cannon in this election has proved to be Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) leader Prakash Ambedkar. His candidates in various constituencies hardly made any difference though he himself contested from Akola and ensured the victory of BJP’s Anup Dhotre. In a similar way, VBA had made the Congress-NCP combine suffer in terms of votes. Although VBA’s vote share has fallen substantially this time, the en-bloc voting by the Muslims and Dalits for INDIA bloc has almost ended Ambedkar’s bargaining power.
A Congress stronghold for almost 60 years, the party kept on sliding down in terms of public acceptance. The 2024 outcome has administered it a boost of energy. After so many years, the Congress headquarters in Mumbai has seen some movement. As the possible opportunity is beckoning, the newly energised Congress party will be an important factor in the assembly election, due in October this year.
A Column By
Dilip Chaware – Senior Editor
A media professional for 43 years, with extensive experience of writing on
a variety of subjects; he is also a documentary producer and book author.
