Whatever claims the major political parties which are in the electoral arena in Maharashtra may make about announcing their candidates based on a seat-sharing formula, it is not possible for them to conceal the fact that they have to tackle a formidable challenge. On the one hand, each party has to keep its flock in order. On the other, every party has to balance its seat demand by considering the demands made by the other partners. In short, it is a testing time for all political parties and leaders.
The Maha Yuti alliance, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party, is struggling to come back in power while the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi is eager to wrest power. Both keep expressing confidence that the public mandate will be in their favour. However, there are many factors, blatant and latent, which will impact the outcome. The MVA’s future leadership will be a haunting dilemma, too, since the Congress and the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray are vying for the position. Though neither is saying so in clear terms, each is gearing up for a fierce competition. At the same time, both sides are facing internal challenges on account of the growing list of hopeful candidates, seeking the party’s endorsement. Consequently, walking from one party into another at the drop of a hat has become commonplace. All such thorny issues demand to be addressed in the next few days as the Election Commission’s announcement for the poll dates is expected any moment. The challenge is compounded for both sides by conflicting claims on seat-sharing. Expectedly, each party within both sides is preparing to contest the maximum number of seats.
The Maharashtra government led by the NDA has been claiming that the state’s role in India’s economy and the overall growth trajectory has remained unaffected by the political developments. So far, the state has been contributing the largest share to India’s GDP. It is estimated to be over 14 percent. The per capita income in Maharashtra is among the highest, too, considering the national average. Maharashtra has remained at the top in attracting the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in India. The pace of development of infrastructure is impressive and expected to boost the state economy further. The NDA has been harping on this achievement while MVA has rarely touched on this aspect. How it affects the voter mood will be a major deciding factor.
For the ruling Maha Yuti, the BJP will not accept less than 150 seats, it is obvious. The Shiv Sena led by chief minister Eknath Shinde and the NCP under Ajit Pawar will thus have to accommodate their demands within the remaining about 140 seats. On the other hand, the MVA also is facing similar challenges. After emerging as the largest seat winning party in the Lok Sabha election, the Congress is adamant on its demand for over 110 seats. The Shiv Sena (UBT) is asking for a hundred seats as it is firm on its claim for the CM’s post after the election. The Nationalist Congress Party led by Sharad Pawar has added a rider by declaring that it will not be in the race for the coveted post. However, it is not likely to accept less than 80 seats, thus entrenching its position as a king maker in case of a balancing act becomes necessary. This complexity will have to be unravelled by the decision makers soon.
The loose cannons like Maharashtra Navnirman Sena led by Raj Thackeray, the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi under Prakash Ambedkar and a so-called Third Front set up by disgruntled elements like Raju Shetty can impact the outcome in a few packets, it is felt. The MNS has plans to contest independently, but its capability to win many seats is doubtful. At the most, it may cost MVA a few seats due to the transfer of Sena (UBT) votes to MNS.
While taking care of seat sharing, some crucial issues on which the major parties will have to face heat includes the Maratha reservation demand. While the MVA has maintained a studied silence on this front, the Maratha reservation demand’s proponent Manor Jarange has concentrated his diatribe against DCM Devendra Fadnavis. This has miffed even his supporters as Jarange is mum about CM Shinde and DCM Ajit Pawar, both belonging to the Maratha caste. As the OBCs are ardently opposed to the Maratha demand, the issue will benefit many candidates, especially in the BJP old, while harming several others. The effect of the demand was witnessed in the LS election though some claim that its intensity is now less. Nonetheless, it is expected to play a role in the assembly election.
The anti-incumbency factor will have some role in the election but it can work either way as both, current government and the previous regime have had about 30 months in power. The convenient alliances formed by both sides have put them on the same defensive platform. Fadanvis had recently complained that the votes of NCP led by his counterpart Ajit Pawar did not transfer to the BJP for the LS election. Thus, both sides will have to work out this situation.
Amidst the electioneering, some statistics could guide the strategists of both sides. The MVA won 63 percent of the LS seats, leaving only about 35 percent of the seat share for the saffron alliance. As against this, the current Vidhan Sabha has 66 percent of the seats with the NDA and the MVA a little over 25 percent. Any swing can work either way for both combatants. The election dates to be announced soon is thus awaited with baited breath.
This will be the first general election in Maharashtra as the voters will have to make a choice out of a multiplicity of parties and candidates, both official and rebels. As ideology has taken a back seat, individual candidates can have a better chance of winning, unlike in any previous election. Voter behaviour, separate party strategies and policies will thus work collectively to determine the election results.
A Column By
Dilip Chaware – Senior Editor
A media professional for 43 years, with extensive experience of writing on
a variety of subjects; he is also a documentary producer and book author.
