The political scene in Maharashtra is undergoing a quick reshape after the Lok Sabha election results a fortnight ago. Due to the seat tally that has emerged, Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray and NCP leader Sharad Pawar have already started assuring various sections about meeting their demands ‘once our government comes in power’ while expressing misgivings about the future of the Modi government at the Centre. On the other hand, a humbled NDA has started the exercise to recover from the mauling it has received at the hustings. Loose cannons like Raj Thackeray and Republican leader Prakash Ambedka are assessing their potential impact on the legislative assembly election outcome.
For the first time, there will be three Congress parties and three Senas in the fray. The Congress, the NCP led by Sharad Pawar and its breakaway faction under Ajit Pawar will vie for the NDA or INDIA vote bank according to their political policy. Similarly, the Sena helmed by Uddhav, the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena led by Raj Thackeray and chief minister Eknath Shinde’s Sena will claim votes on the basis of the pride and ethos of Maharashtra, laced with a liberal dose of Hindutva. They will fight the election under the tutelage of the BJP, accepted by them as ‘Big Brother,’ at least for the time being.
In short, the electoral battle which will begin soon after the Ganesh Festival will be the most interesting and suspenseful in the history of the state. The mantle of leadership will be the principal concern of each of them. While Uddhav will try to come back to power, Shinde will spare no effort to continue while BJP’s face Devendra Fadnavis will utilise the opportunity to regain the post which he handled capably between 2014 and 2019 and which was snatched from him owing to political compulsions later.
As of now, the scene is quite murky and will take time to crystalize. All these leaders, with the exception of Sharad Pawar, have to go a long way in politics and the coming election will be a major factor in their public life. Determined to humble the opposition, each of them will try to exploit the opportunity to gain space in the state politics.
Given the arithmetic of the LS election, it may be said that the INDIA bloc is leading in about 150 assembly segments in the state against the NDA’s 140 out of a total 288. This vote sharing statistics will impact the future. Though the NDA has polled slightly more votes than the INDIA combine, the latter’s winning score is way ahead. Of course, there is no guarantee that the LS voting pattern is repeated in the assembly or local body elections. Nonetheless, the losing side for the LS has to be wary while planning its strategy for the next round of bouts.
As assembly elections appear on the horizon, each partner in the NDA and INDIA has started demanding its share of the seats. Lone ranger Raj Thackeray has announced in a party meeting that the MNS will contest 200-225 seats. This unilateral declaration will certainly undergo revision but to what extent, the NDA will have to decide. This is intriguing as he had extended unconditional support for the NDA ahead of the LS polls. CM Shinde’s confidant followers have demanded 80 to 90 seats while DCM Ajit Pawar’s senior colleague, Chhagan Bhujbal, too, is looking at a similar number. Thus, there will be considerable tussle for grabbing a larger seat slice by each partner as the BJP is silent on this aspect.
For INDIA, the Sena under Uddhav Thackeray is planning to emerge as the largest ally and also the logical claimant for the CM post. However, the LS scoreboard could stand in its way as the Congress has won most seats, 13. It is followed by Sharad Pawar’s NCP at ten. Uddhav’s party has got nine seats. Without waiting for a final settlement, Uddhav has begun selecting possible assembly candidates in the state.
As soon as the Lok Sabha success became known, Sharad Pawar and Sena’s Sanjay Raut have started expressing confidence that their combine will wrest power from the NDA in Maharashtra. For instance, Pawar assured a farmers’ meet in Baramati that his party will solve their grievances.
The BJP, which controls the present three-party regime in Maharashtra, has desisted from making any statement on seat-sharing since it knows that it will be taking a final decision about the seat distribution. The party leadership has put the lid on the speculation about the stewardship of Maharashtra by asking deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis to continue as the state BJP leader and take the three other partners on board. This message that no change will happen in the state will enable the saffron rank and file to proceed on a blueprint for achieving victory in the assembly polls. Thus, both DCMs, Ajit Pawar and Fadnavis are given a signal to start preparing and that the NCP(A) will continue in the ruling alliance.
After 2019 assembly election, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance was set to rule the state for a second term. At the time, the BJP had emerged as the single largest party by winning 105 seats in the house of 288. It was followed by the Sena at 56. The NCP (Sharad) came at the third slot with 54 while the smallest among the major parties was the Congress at 44. But that did not happen and Uddhav was installed as CM. Later, the Sena and the NCP split, leading to a different grouping on both sides, the ruling and the opposition.
Considering its history, the Congress has surprisingly won the largest share of the seats in the LS election. In 2019 LS polls, it could win only one seat – Chandrapur, which it has retained this time. The largest gainer in 2019, the BJP, has suffered a shattering blow this time. The most unexpected performance is shown by Eknath Shinde’s Sena.
In view of the poll statistics and the burning issues like the prevailing dry season, water shortage, the Maratha reservation demand and the OBC opposition to it, the campaigning will be dominated by multiple factors. The Modi government’s performance at the Centre during the intervening months, too, will prove a decisive role. Whichever way the future of Maharashtra political scenario is considered, its reshaping will be inevitable.
A Column By
Dilip Chaware – Senior Editor
A media professional for 43 years, with extensive experience of writing on
a variety of subjects; he is also a documentary producer and book author.
