Maharashtra is now considered a battleground state as the results in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections have revised India’s political complexion, including in the state. For most observers, the outcome has been surprising. The electorate has brought down the BJP to nine seats from 23 within just five years. The repercussions of the verdict are felt already and will determine the BJP’s and the NDA’s strategy for the coming assembly election later this year. On the other hand, the INDIA bloc will approach the election much more confidently.
For the Lok Sabha, the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance has performed poorly. The sole gainer is chief minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, which has won seven seats. The other ally, Ajit Pawar’s NCP could win just one seat, retaining senior leader Sunil Tatkare from Raigad. The NDA thus has shrunk to 17 seats out of 48 in Maharashtra. In 2014, the NDA had won 43 seats but the Shiv Sena was unified at the time and was wholly with the BJP.
It can be deduced that the Sympathy Factor has benefited both principal opposition leaders, Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray this time. Both leaders had to face the split in the NCP and the Shiv Sena, respectively. In a sense, their larger faction was snatched from them in broad daylight. Their grievance that it was hijacked by the BJP and that it was harming the interests of Maharashtra appealed to the voters across the state. Their party factions were seen as defectors seeking their personal political fortunes. The joint strategy implemented by Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar has worked for the LS election.
For the Mahayuti alliance, the drubbing in Maharashtra has prompted Devendra Fadanvis to offer his resignation as deputy chief minister. The decision has rattled the political scene in the state.
It may be said that Uddhav Thackeray has emerged as the face of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) which is part of the INDIA bloc in Maharashtra. His Sena faction has won nine of the 21 seats it contested. This can be compared with the Shinde-led Sena’s strike rate. It contested 15 seats and won seven.
At the time of the split, the Sena under Shinde had walked away with most of the unified Sena’s MLAs and MPs. Moreover, it had obtained the party’s original name and symbol. Overcoming that challenge, the Uddhav faction has established its supremacy.
The case with Ajit Pawar’s NCP was not much different. The NCP (A) obtained the name and the symbol after parting ways from the organisation created and developed by veteran leader Sharad Pawar. Interestingly, Sharad Pawar has registered a higher strike rate. His faction has won seven of the ten seats it contested. Naturally, this performance is compared with Ajit’s NCP, which could win just one of the five seats it contested.
Of the various factors that went awry for the BJP and Mahayuti, the fights in Marathwada region proved costly. Although the drought-prone region has been consistently supporting the saffron alliance, it changed its preference this time. The BJP’s management of the Maratha quota agitation was a latent factor and its handling by the state government had angered a large section of the electorate. Resultantly, the BJP has failed to win any seat in Marathwada. The lone exception is Shinde’s confidant Sandipan Bhumre, who won the prestigious Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar seat, defeating AIMIM’s Imtiyaz Jalil and Sena (U) candidate Chandrakant Khaire, both former MPs.
The state government’s posture on the issue was resented by the Maratha voters, who were angry with essentially the BJP. However, the other two partners in power, Sena (Shinde) and NCP (Ajit), both Maratha leaders, had to bear the brunt, too. The campaign by Manoj Jarange Patil for the Maratha reservation quota showed its impact, perhaps underrated by the BJP’s local leadership. Although a quota for the Marathas was announced by the state government, its ineffective implementation due to various judicial restrictions was used for campaign by the INDIA bloc against the alliance. Outlandish statements by various OBC leaders against the Maratha community only fuelled the attack and there was consolidation against the rulers. On the other hand, the OBCs, too, chose a different path although previously they had voted for the BJP. They felt threatened owing to the Maratha reservation.
Long before the elections, the BJP wooed various opposition leaders. One of them was the long-time Congress leader and former CM Ashok Chavan. This did not soften the Maratha opposition and similar efforts to become inclusive failed. One prominent BJP losers was its national secretary Pankaja Munde, the high-profile daughter of late Gopinath Munde, an OBC quota champion. She was assisted by her cousin Dhananjay Munde, but to no avail. Against the backdrop of the BJP’s sweeping victory in Beed, Jalna, Nanded and Latur seats in Marathwada in 2019, its defeats in these constituencies in 2024 have been more crushing.
Another major vote bank that the BJP in particular and the Mahayuti in general lost in 2024 was the block Dalit vote. It was observed in the 2014 and 2019 LS elections that the BJP had won several reserved constituencies, more than the opposition. However, this election was diffirent. The INDIA bloc hammered the narrative that if a BJP government came back with a thumping majority, it will mangle the constitution to achieve its objective of making India a Hindu Rashtra. This propaganda found its correct target. Protests erupted against this perceived threat. The sacred memory of Dr Babasaheb Ambedkar was invoked. All in all, the possibility loomed large for some sections, at the cost of the alliance. It had to pay a heavy price in Vidarbha, Marathwada and Mumbai.
The BJP’s electioneering machinery did not spare efforts to blunt this damaging narrative but the party did not succeed much. As admitted by Fadnavis, “Unfortunately, the Opposition’s false narrative to mislead the people appears to have worked.” The result was that the BJP won just two seats of seven it contested in Vidarbha, its stronghold over the past two decades. CM Shinde’s Sena contested three seats and scored a nil. Although popular BJP leader Nitin Gadkari could retain Nagpur, his victory margin suffered. Despite being the RSS headquarters and and Gadkari’s clout, the show in Vidarbha appeared more pathetic since Fadnavis and state BJP president Chandrashekhar Bawankule are from the second capital of Maharashtra.
It is said that success has many fathers while failure has none. The INDIA bloc at present is basking in the glory of the success it has achieved. It will approach the future elections with more vigour and joint strategy. As far as Maharashtra is concerned, Fadnavis has belied this popular saying by owning up the responsibility for the defeat of the BJP and the Mahayuti. His confidence that both will fare better in the coming legislative assembly election shows the true spirit of a political leader, who believes that tough times don’t last, tough people do.
A Column By
Dilip Chaware – Senior Editor
A media professional for 43 years, with extensive experience of writing on
a variety of subjects; he is also a documentary producer and book author.
